What If Castro Never Came To Power?

for many Americans Cuba has been a communist nation longer than they have been alive for more than 50 years Cuba has remained under an embargo from the United States which is why to some it’s a strange change the relations are once again improving between the once fierce enemies why was this to begin with multiple factors American involvement support of a dictator and rise of communist Fidel Castro who brought Cuba under one-party rule his rised power was one of the most influential of the 20th century and brought the Cold War to America’s doorstep almost starting a nuclear war as a result however now after a half century diplomacy is finally back on the table which Spurs the question what if communication between the u.s. and Cuba never closed what if in an alternate timeline Castro never came to power what if he never made Cuba communist well here’s one scenario but before I get to it here are some brief very simplified history if you want to skip right to the scenario click on this guy what exactly led to the Cuban Revolution its origins come from the very birth of Cuba since the spanish-american war the United States and its companies had a massive stake of Cuban resources land in government being 90 miles from a growing power wasn’t the best situation for the little island nation the Platt Amendment in the Cuban Constitution basically let the u.s. control Cuba’s rights and affairs without full annexation this amendment was abolished in the 1930s with the treaty between the two however the partnership between Cuba and America was heavily one-sided up into the 50s American companies controlled most important resources such as sugar and other crops fast forward in 1952 Cuba was to hold nationwide elections however knowing he was going to lose the election Valencia Batista led a military coup against the government canceling the elections and suspending the democratic 1940 Constitution this move created uproar among many including a young lawyer running for government named Fidel Castro under Batista corruption and outside influence ran wild mobsters opened casinos in Havana American businesses used the land as they wished his rule became disliked by many political Cubans now believing the government couldn’t be changed from the inside Fidel along with his brother Raul and a hundred other rebels attacked a military base to gain weapons this ended in failure with most being executed and both brothers being thrown in jail Batista released them due to pressure and the Castro’s fled to Mexico to replan Fidel Raul and an Argentine doctor named Ernesto Che Guevara found more supporters and sail back to Cuba in 1956 only to be massacred again and flee into the mountains Batista didn’t think anyone would survive in the Sierra Maestra mountains but from here Castro gained more supporters his army grew to around 300 for the next couple years his rebel group 226 of July Movement stayed up in the mountains slowly earning support by locals as they combated Batista’s forces across Cuba resentment flared towards the regime in 1957 a failed assassination on Batista by students and brutal crackdown on opponents by his government led the u.s. to distance itself from Cuba Castro gained international recognition for his war against the dictator and was praised by the media across the globe at this time Castro wasn’t fighting for communism he was simply a freedom fighter in 1958 Batista sent over 10,000 troops into the sierra maestra x’ to take down Castro’s insurgency this offensive ended in failure and in retreat Castro was able to go on the offensive against the government by 1959 Batista knew his rule was over and fled from Cuba into exile Castro led his army across the island easily taking the cities along the way in marching into Havana as a hero however this image of a hero began to erode away as Castro’s plans of a democratic Cuba became more like an empty promise at first purges were celebrated against former Batista supporters but then gradually Castro went against non Marxist even though those were his former allies Cuba soon became a one-party communist state what if Castro never came to power in this alternate timeline say Castro was killed instead of being captured and sent to prison for the attack on the military base both Castro brothers Fidel and Raul are executed before ever standing trial Fidel is never able to give his famous history will absolve me speech the 26th of July Movement never takes place since both of its others are killed che guevara never goes to Cuba to help in revolution and doesn’t become a world-famous icon this doesn’t mean the revolution would stuff as Batista was extremely hated by eventually all Cubans as the 1950s went on his regime killed thousands of civilians censored the press silenced political opponents and turned Cuba into a police state if Castro’s movement had ended before it began it’s likely other groups would take his place one group was the student revolutionary Directorate which launched attacks against probe Batista locations even without Castro Batista’s reign was counting down and this alternate timeline Batista still loses support of the American government for his crackdown on opponents it might take longer for him to fail in this timeline but it seems like it would be an inevitable conclusion depending on who would take charge after Batista’s fall depends on the future of Cuba most likely it would be a moderate who aims for fair democratic elections in Cuba most rebels including those who fought alongside Castro were not fighting for communism but democracy and our timeline Castro’s cabinet included moderates who wish for elections before fleeing after seeing Castro’s true intentions without Castro it’s very unlikely Cuba would have become a communist state most likely it would be a democratic state with socialist ideas much like Latin American or European states today in this alternate timeline Cuba has a legitimate democracy based on the Constitution of 1940 assuming the government would remain stable for the next 50 years this doesn’t mean everything would be rosy even though Castro brought on one-party rule to Cuba limited free speech and other forms of political expression he brought some positive change to Cuba his social welfare reforms helped lessen the wealth gap between rich and poor new laws were made to lessen racial and gender discrimination and education was expanded in the rural parts of Cuba if a more conservative leader stayed in power it’s likely social progress would be far worse in Cuba in this alternate timeline the United States would still control much of Cuba’s resources I love America it’s my home but it’s geopolitics 101 that powerful nations like to control smaller nations this was even seen as an issue to JFK who said I believe that there is no country in the world including any in all the countries under colonial domination where economic colonization humiliation and exploitation were worse than in Cuba in part owing to my country’s policies under the p’tee stadt regime only being 90 miles from the coast the islands unlucky geography made it in a neva ttle treasure chest for American interests without a communist takeover impractical isolation of the country Cuba would remain a Banana Republic for American companies perhaps reforms could be made in this alternate timeline to make resources more available to the Cuban people land reform would certainly be a major issue if this was not solved Havana today would be a major tourist City for neighboring Americans it wouldn’t be the Las Vegas it was under Batista simply because the mob wouldn’t have much of an influence but it’d still be one of the most prospering cities in the Western Hemisphere the effects of no Castro are very clear much of the political situation in Latin America would be changed Castro was much more of an influence a leader than we tend to realize today he didn’t want to just spread communism to Cuba but to the rest of the world he funded leftist guerrillas in Latin America and against colonial powers in Africa even sending troops in the Nicaragua and Angola in this alternate timeline socialist revolutions are not funded throughout the world by the Cuban government by doing so the United States never props up far-right dictators to combat Cuba’s left as militias the Cuban Missile Crisis of course never would have happened transforming the politics of the Cold War the Missile Crisis scared the USSR and Americans so much they set up a line of communication so that the situation would never happen again the demographics of Miami and South Florida would be changed in our timeline an exodus of Cuba’s occurred once Castro took power without the communist takeover there would be much less Hispanic influence in Florida this is simply one of the countless scenarios one thing is certain without Castro it’s very unlikely Cuba ever would have shifted to communism Cuba would most likely be like any other Latin American democracy not perfect but certainly with many more political freedoms than in our timeline it would be under a lot of American influence however with pressure resources maybe could be handed back to the Cuban people that’s just optimism though what do you think would have happened had Castro never came to power say in the comments like us on Facebook and subscribe if you have not done so this is Cody from the alternate history hub
Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toso9UP6bno

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