Work and World

‘Could Be A Big Problem For You’: Security Analyst’s Warning To Putin

>>> WOULD RUSSIA CUT ITS LOSSES AND PULL OUT? SHARING A NUMBER OF SIMILARITIES FROM ANOTHER TIME WITH ITS ATTACK ON UKRAINE NOT JUST HOW THE WAR BEGAN OR SUPPORT ROLE PLAYED BY THE UNITED STATES, BUT ALSO HOW BECAUSE OF HOW MANY RUSSIAN SOLDIERS HAVE DIED SO FAR. JOINING ME NOW HERE IN WASHINGTON CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST PETER BERGEN. YOU STUDIED BOTH OF THESE CONFLICTS EXTENSIVELY AND WROTE AN OP-ED ON CNN.COM. THERE IT IS NOW. NUMBER THAT PUTS VLADIMIR PUTIN AT RISK. TALK ABOUT START OF THE WAR, START OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION IN AFGHANISTAN. SIMILARITIES. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? >> THE BIG — FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN THE BIG SIMILARITY IS 15,000 RUSSIAN TROOPS MAY HAVE DIED ACCORDING TO ESTIMATES FROM NATO OFFICIALS TO CNN. THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS DURING THE 1980 WAR AGAINST THE SOVIETS IS 15,000 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DEAD. SO IN NINE YEARS OF WAR DURING ’80s, 15,000 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS Array DIED. IN ONE MONTH, 15,000 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DIED. VLADIMIR PUTIN UNDERSTAND THE BERLIN WAR FELL WHEN PULLED OUT OF AFGHANISTAN. A YOUNG KGB OFFICER. HE MUST BE KEENLY AWARE THAT THINGS CAN CHANGE NOT IN HIS FAVOR IF ENOUGH BODY BAGS START GOING HOME. FURTHER BACK IN RUSSIAN HISTORY. ROMANOVS LOST WORLD WAR ONE AND THEN EXECUTED. YOU FAIL IN WARS, COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR YOU YOURSELF. >> RIGHT. THEY DON’T TYPICALLY STICK AROUND WHEN THEY’VE SUFFERED A LOSS LIKER THAT EXPERIENCING NOW AND UKRAINIANS ARE FIGHTING BACK NOT EXACTLY THE WAY THE AFGHANS DID DURING THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, BUT THEY ARE FIGHTING BACK IN LESS, I GUESS, YOU KNOW, CATASTROPHIC TERMS, USING MOLOTOV COCKTAILS, MANY DEMONSTRATIONS AND SO ON, BUT FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE, THEY’RE MAKING IT CLEAR THEY’RE NOT GROG TO BE SUPPRESSED BY PUTIN, RAILROAD GOING TO MOUNT RESISTANCE. AND IN MANY WAYS IT DOES REMIND YOU OF HOW THINGS WENT IN AFGHANISTAN. >> YEAH. BIG DIFFERENCE, JIM, THAT THE UKRAINIANS ARE BETTER OFF THAN THE AFGHANS. THEY DIDN’T HAVE ANTI-AIRCRAFT UNTIL 1996. HERE THEY HAVE THEM ALREADY. ANTI-TANK WEAPONS. RESULTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. THE RUSSIAN KIND OF FAILURE IN UKRAINE IS HAPPENING RATHER DRAMATICALLY. IF, INDEED THEY FAIL. IT’S AN OPEN QUESTION. CLEARLY NOT WINNING AND MAY BE LOSING. IN AFGHANISTAN UNTIL ’86, AFGHANS PUT UP A BIG FIGHT BUT DIDN’T HAVE THE RIGHT WEAPONS. UKRAINIANS HAVE THE RIGHT WEAPONS AND GET THEIR HANDS ON THE S-300 WEAPONS, ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS THEY KNOW HOW TO USE. PRESSURE TO GET THOSE WEAPONS INTO THE THEATER. AND THAT WILL BE EVEN MORE A GAME-CHANGER, BECAUSE RIGHT NOW THEY CAN BRING DOWN BALLISTIC MISSILES AND BRING DOWN HIGH ALTITUDE AIRCRAFT WITH THESE S-300s, STINGERS CANNOT. >> RIGHT. AND I GUESS YOU WRITE THERE’S A CHANCE PUTIN COULD FEEL SO CORNERED IN UKRAINE HE COULD USE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. >> YES. >> EVEN USE HIS NUCLEAR ARSENAL. GOD FORBID THAT HAPPENS. BUT WHAT IS THE AFGHAN EXPERIENCE TELLING US ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PUTIN WOULD GO DOWN THAT ROAD IN UKRAINE THEN? >> CERTAINLY THE AFGHAN EXPERIENCE, SOVIETS KILLED 1 MILLION AFGHANS. MINIMAL NUMBER. AS MANY AS 2 MILLION. MADE A THIRD OF THE POPULATION HOMELESS. THESE KINDS OF RUSSIAN TACTICS SAW IT IN GROZNY, ALEPPO, THESE ARE NOT NEW TACTICS. >> ASK YOU ABOUT THE TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN AND WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW. TALIBAN POSTPONING RETURN TO SCHOOL FOR GIRLS ABOVE THE SIXTH GRADE. U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FOR AFGHANISTAN SAYS THAT CAUGHT THE U.S. BY SURPRISE. PERHAPS SHOULD NOT HAVE COME AS A SURPRISE. HELP VIEWERS UNDERSTAND WHAT’S HAPPENING THERE RIGHT NOW. BECAUSE WE HAVEN’T TOUCHED BASE WITH YOU ON THIS IN SOME TIME. >> YEAH. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, I FIND IT DEEPLY UNSURPRISING. SEVEN MONTHS AFTER THEY TOOK POWER, YOU KNOW, THEY ARE PREVENTING GIRLS WHO ARE ABOVE AGE 13 TO GO TO SCHOOL. PUT THAT IN THE “UNSURPRISING FILE.” NOT IN THE “DEEPLY SURPRISED E”FILE. PART OF THEIR PROJECT FROM THE BEGINNING. EXCLUDE WOMEN FROM THE WORKPLACE AND EXCLUDE GIRLS FROM EDUCATION. THEY SAID THEY’D DESIGN A NEW UNIFORM. THE PROBLEM. COME ON. DOESN’T TAKE YOU SEVEN MONTHS TO DESIGN A NEW UNIFORM. IT’S AN EXCUSE UNFORTUNATELY I DON’T THINK SURPRISING AND KIND OF PART OF THE PROJECT NOW. THEY DIDN’T REFORM, JUST WINDOW DRESSING WHEN THEY SAID WE’RE DIFFERENT, AND THIS SHOWS THEY HAVEN’T CHANGED. >> YEAH.
Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyXM4A1Zse4

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